Dangerous Grounds: Coffee, Costs, and Why Ritual Still Rules

by Craig Hogan

Coffee may be on dangerous grounds—prices climbing, standards shifting—but for millions of us, the ritual still rules the day, one perfect sip at a time.

Every day begins the same way for me: beans, grind, water, heat. That first sip is my cue that the day is officially underway. And at 2:30, like clockwork, I brew again. Coffee isn’t just fuel—it’s ritual. It’s how I “do” the day.

Maybe that’s because the ritual has always been with me. When I was young, I was raised by my grandparents. My grandfather taught me this rhythm—every day at 2:30 sharp, he would “make the coffee,” as we all called it. I suppose that’s where it started for me. Even now, just a whiff of the aroma can send me back to age four, standing in their kitchen, watching the steam rise.

But lately, our beloved ritual has been edging closer to… dangerous grounds.

Prices Are Heating Up

Let’s start with the headline every coffee lover (and sweet tooth) dreads: coffee is getting more expensive.

In Brazil, the world’s largest coffee exporter, Arabica futures have surged over 35% this year.
Retail coffee prices there—recently down from 70 to 59 reais per kilo—are expected to climb again amid looming U.S. tariffs.
Here at home, ground coffee hit a record $7 per pound in early 2025, up from around $4 just five years ago. Climate disruption, shipping snarls, and tariff woes are all brewing trouble.

And just when you thought your sacred sip was safe—they’re coming for chocolate next. Cocoa prices reached staggering highs, topping $10,000 per metric ton in late 2024—a 150% jump in just one year. Major chocolate makers are already raising prices or quietly shrinking package sizes, meaning your evening square of bliss might soon cost as much as your latte.

Grind Smarter, Not Harder

But coffee lovers know—there’s power in the grind. Literally.

Fine grinds = fast extraction, great for espresso.
Medium grinds = balanced pour-over or drip perfection.
Coarse grinds = smooth French press or cold brew.

Dialing in your grind is the difference between bitter disappointment and café-quality bliss. The good news? Mastering this at home is still one of the most cost-effective luxuries around.

A Shift in Quality Control

Coffee quality is getting a shake-up, too. For decades, the prestigious Q Grader certification (think “sommelier for coffee”) was overseen by the Coffee Quality Institute. Now, as of October 2025, the Specialty Coffee Association will take over, introducing a new Coffee Value Assessment (CVA) model.

This isn’t just about flavor anymore—it’s about sustainability, story, and the full journey from bean to brew. Some graders feel blindsided, others see it as overdue. Either way, it’s a reminder that even the most traditional rituals evolve with time.

Why It Feels Familiar

If this all sounds a little like real estate, it is. Coffee and homes both reflect global forces, personal rituals, and shifting standards. Prices fluctuate, details matter, and value is often in the eye (or palate) of the beholder.

And yet, the ritual is what grounds us. Even when the market jitters, tariffs rise, or grading systems change, we still grind, brew, and sip. Coffee remains the luxury that feels essential—the pause that lets us move forward.

The Bottom Line

Yes, your morning cup is more expensive. Yes, even the way we measure quality is changing. But the ritual? That’s priceless. On dangerous grounds or not, coffee remains the one market where “location, location, location” is as simple as your kitchen counter, your favorite mug, and a little time to savor the day.

— Craig Hogan & Rudy Zavala
Hogan Zavala Group | Engel & Völkers Chicago

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